Net-times: My Perspective

Zingby has been making some good progress lately. We have quite a few number of improvements in the works for the general sns portion and we are specing out more advancements towards a collaborative environment. This includes a number of changes to functionality, formatting, layout and design. Also, long due is a complete notification system which we are developing now.

New groups created recently are: Shanghai Interpreters, China Travel and Shanghai Hotels.

We are also looking for a PHP developer to work with us in Shanghai or New York (must speak Mandarin or be bilingual English/Mandarin). Please visit Zingby if you are interested in joining us.

Kevin

I returned late last night from my trip to Shanghai (China, for those of you unfamiliar with the city of 20 million +). It was more than a year since my last visit and things haven’t changed all that much. Of course, I stayed at my favorite Shanghai Hotel, which I highly recommend.

However, I did notice a few things that were different.

The economy: One of the first things people in Shanghai asked me was about the economy in the U.S. and if we were recovering. This is not surprising given what has happened in the past 18 months. The economy (at least the tech side) has been significantly impacted by the global downturn. There are many great tech professionals not working, just like here in the U.S., but without having the actual numbers, it felt like their situation was probably worse than it is here. So, if you are looking to start up a technology team in China, now is probably a good time to find great talent.

I did spend a few hours gift buying and wondering around some of the tourist areas. Maybe it was the time of year, but it felt like there were less people crowding places like Yuyuan Garden (豫园 a popluar shopping area) and Xintiandi (新天地). Of course there were the usual crowds, but I can remember having to work just to gain a few feet of ground. This time, however, I walked freely.

Construction: Ever since I started traveling to Shanghai for business (sometime in 2005), I was amazed by the amount of significant construction that was happening. From a normal drive from the Pudong Airport, you would see skyscraper after skyscraper being constructed for the 30 mile or so drive into the city. It was amazing to think about the number of people they would need to fill those apartments. This time, however, while there was still noticeable construction, the numbers seemed much less. Also, I did notice that many the massive structures that were being built seemed to be stalled, like construction had been halted.

Business relationship with the U.S.: There has been a strong push of confidence among the people even during this economic downturn. They have always been a people of strength and confidence, but now I see this even stronger. The effect feels like it is bringing our two nations closer. Like any good relationship, a feeling of being on equal footing makes for better communication and progress. As I discussed this topic with some of the people there, there was agreement that they felt the same way.

Since I have grown to appreciate the Chinese people over the years, I am happy we seem to be coming closer together.

BTW, If you travel to China, Shanghai is a must see.

Kevin

Well, we just opened up the alpha version of Zingby and I am very happy about the progress. It was only four months ago that this idea was born and we’ve all been working hard on it to make it happen. The concept is based on professional social networking in China with a twist of collaboration. The networking aspects are round one, so that is where we are today. You will see additional exciting new features coming in the next couple of months.

The in-line Google translate feature is being tested on the website. So far, it works fairly well. You can still get around the website if your Chinese isn’t very good. We do plan to have multiple language versions, but the method of delivering that will probably be a combination of automated and manual translation.

So, take a look, get registered and feel free to send me an invite to network.

(This post is a little bit of self promotion about Twing.com, the product I currently GM)

So, Google is now allowing users to search across forums outside the Google Groups platform. When we started to build the vision of Twing back in late 2006, one of the questions that arose during the business validation and competitive analysis processes was “If Google entered the market, what would happen to Twing?”. Of course, when you consider an 800 lb. gorilla like Google entering your space, there is always pause.

However, while your business could be greatly damaged by such a situation, there is also opportunity. One of the challenges we faced at Twing was mainstream awareness of “cross forum search”. Yes, it is true that more than 25% of the U.S. internet population uses online discussion forums. However, mainstream awareness about the benefits of this content is limited. Users tend to not understand the differences between different collection types.

In our case the comparison is simply between standard web results and discussion content found in forums. Online forum content is also very different from blogs (in their current mainstream form). We refer to forums as places where many to many discussions take place, or groups speaking amongst themselves. Blogs are usually individuals or entities that post broadcasts to other users. Blog comments can be referred to as discussions of sorts, but they are not the same as forums, in general.

Back to the point. Since awareness about our benefits was always a challenge, we viewed an entry from a major player (Google, Yahoo, Microsoft, Ask) as an opportunity to generate awareness. For example, if they implemented functionality that replicated ours, they would drive mainstream users to the product. Those (now converted believers in forum content) are possible users of Twing.

Oh, and there is one other reason it’s not all bad Google is getting into our space. It helps justify our belief that this is a growing opportunity, not something of the past.

Now that you have a little insight into our positive way of thinking at Twing, I need to get back to figuring out how to battle the fully armed cruiser on my tail doing 40 knots! (Thanks for the analogy Scott)

Anyway, since you read all the way through this blog post (thank you), have a look at Twing if you are interested in searching forums and online discussions. We think we have done a pretty good job.

Kevin Shea

Whether or not the market has hit the bottom, now is an excellent opportunity to begin building your new internet-based startup. If you have cash, and time to plan and build, and were waiting for a good time to start, your opportunity has arrived. This is my opinion, of course, but let me tell you why.

The most important prerequisites are available time and money. In a way, this reminds me of an old (70’s) joke Steve Martin used to tell in his standup acts: “How to make a million dollars and never pay taxes. First, get a million dollars (said simply). Then, when the taxman comes around to collect, you just tell him that you just forgot to pay your taxes.” It’s a joke, of course, but you need the money to operate your business during planning and development. You also need to have time, which can be significantly assisted by having sufficient finances.

Ok, so let’s assume you have money lined up (not an easy feat in this market), or you can build with your own cash. Other people in my industry are touting the cost savings opportunities as the primary reason for starting now. I agree this is a great opportunity to save money on hardware, networking and people costs. Additionally, business operating costs like commercial rent are also looking good right now. However, imo, this is not the most powerful driver.

Our economy (and the world, for that matter) runs in cycles. If you believe we will be coming out of our recent downturn by the end of 2009 or early 2010, it makes sense to look at your future product and it’s lifecycle. This is an area that most make mistakes.

While I have seen complex projects developed and launched in 6 – 9 months, the average is usually more like 12 – 15 months. Based on the assumption that your project falls into this timeframe, if you started today your launch would be in the last quarter of 2009 or the first quarter of 2010. You would be launching at the beginning of a positive upturn in the market, as opposed to the end of one. VC/Angel/IPO/M&A interest will improve and investors will be hungry to take advantage of an upswing.

Most successful internet products are technologically complex. If not, barriers to competition are lower and investors will see this as a risk. I would see it this way. This is not to say your idea can’t be a simple one that is overlooked in the marketplace. However, if you get traction, people will jump at the chance to beat you at your own game. The easier that is, the more risky your business.

The question that will be asked is “If someone wanted to compete with you, how long would it take to get to your stage of maturity?”. Also, “How much would it cost?” If the answers are that it would not take long and cost very little, you might want to reconsider what you are planning. A good answer to these questions would be something like “We decided to get into this product because there is a market need, it’s not easy to build and a competitor would need significantly more than a few servers a a couple of programmers to get to our level.”

Why do entrepreneurs make mistakes estimating time to market?

1. Hiring the right people takes time. Even in an employers market, it is a consuming process. You should also expect that one or more of your most important hires will not work out for some reason and you will need to rehire/retrain.
2. Building detailed product specifications is often overlooked as a potential bump. A product spec document should read like a fluent roadmap for all members of your team, right down to the person writing the code. Even when you think they are complete from the business perspective, you will likely need to be revised many times to reflect the necessary ongoing feedback from technology.
3. And finally, writing and testing the code will have its own bumps along the way. Even if business and technology agree on the feasibility of some aspect of your product, you will likely find some part(s) that won’t work within your capabilities or budgeting constraints.

Don’t get me wrong. As I’ve stated earlier, concept to live product can happen quickly. However, banking on it could be a big mistake.

Back to the original point. If 12 – 15 months is what it takes to get your product live…do the math and look at the calendar. Fifteen months from now is January 2010. What will the financial world be like then?

IMO, It’s time to start!

Kevin